Since the beginning of the election campaign, The Strategic Counsel has been polling intensively in the three Battleground Regions that will decide the outcome of the election: 20 ridings in Ontario, 15 ridings in Quebec and 10 ridings in British Columbia – all of which were the closest ridings in their province in the last (2006) federal election (or subsequent by-elections).
One of the most notable trends we’ve discovered… is that there isn’t any national trend at all! Rather, these Battlegrounds show all the markings of three distinct, very separate campaigns that are taking place simultaneously – as opposed to one single national campaign.
The Conservatives took the lead early in the 10 closest BC ridings – and they’ve held onto it, and consolidated it ever since. The numbers show that voters in the BC Battlegrounds are the most positively inclined towards the Harper government, and the most positive about the current state of the nation. Good news for the Conservatives is bad news for the Liberals who, with six of those ten close BC seats, have the most at stake in the tight West Coast races.
In Quebec, the two parties led by francophone Quebecers, the Bloc and the Liberals, have been losing ground in the 15 Battleground ridings to the two parties led by anglos from outside the province – the Conservatives and the NDP. The Conservatives numbers have increased most dramatically since 2006 in the ridings outside the island of Montreal. And the gains in the NDP vote – at the expense of both the Bloc and the Liberals – may actually help the Tories pick up a number of those seats. Interestingly, on issue after issue – from Canada-US relations, to the environment, to the arts, to the economy – a majority of voters in the Quebec Battlegrounds disagree with the Harper government. But they still give the PM high leadership marks.
In Ontario Battlegrounds, the Liberals and Conservatives are in a see-saw fight, with the Green Party bleeding votes from the Grits. Of the twenty closest Ontario ridings, the Conservatives have 10 at stake, the Liberals 8 and the NDP 2. So far, the two main parties are doing well holding onto votes in the respective ridings they won. But all of the 20 Ontario ridings were won by margins of less than 4.5% last election. So even the most minor vote shifts can move the ridings from one party’s column to another.
