Last Thursday on the CTV National News, Lloyd Robertson asked me what each of the three national parties and their leaders had to do in the coming weeks.
Over the last couple of days, I blogged in a little greater detail on Stephen Harper’s and Stephane Dion’s respective to-do lists. Today, the final installment: what Jack Layton and his NDP must do between now and election day.
1. Be the Anti-Harper
By and large, the NDP won’t steal many votes from the Conservatives. That’s a long way for those voters to travel along the spectrum. Mr. Layton’s best chances for growth lie with those currently leaning toward the Liberals, the Green Party, and, in Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois. But the way to peel away those votes isn’t to get into a knock-down-drag-out with those parties, it’s actually to keep pounding away at the Harper Conservatives. In every sense, from personal style, to political values, to world view, Jack Layton is the diametric opposite of Stephen Harper. That’s the magnet he needs to use to draw votes from those other parties. “If you really, really can’t stand Harper and co.”, his pitch should do, “I’m your guy.”
If the re-election – even with a majority – of the Harper government starts to look inevitable, it might even help Layton. Because the focus for a lot of voters would morph from stopping the Conservatives – the Liberal strong suit – to electing opposition members who will keep them on their toes – an NDP strong suit.
2. Zero in on “Lunch Bucket” Issues
The fact is that the Liberals and the Greens between each other have stolen away the environment from the NDP. There is just no way that they are going to be considered as green as they are. Ironically, that was probably a source of panic for the NDP six months ago. Today, it’s more of a blessing because indications are that increased economic anxiety has caused the public to cool somewhat on the green agenda. While they still want action on the environmental front, they’re not too keen about opening up their own wallet. And the skepticism that is greeting the Liberal Green Shift is the best indication of that.
This is particularly important to the traditional blue collar NDP, who already feels over-burdened and stressed. The Conservatives have helped discredit the Green Shift to these voters by defining it, fairly or not, as a tax-grab. The NDP can up the ante – and stress their difference from the Liberals – on an issue like fuel prices. It’s a twofer for the NDP, as it allows them to beat up on oil companies (popular with blue collar workers) and talk about easing the burden at the gas pump. And the fact that it is pretty counterproductive policy regarding the environment hurts not a whit, since the Liberals have carved out the higher ground on that issue. It’s a red-meat economic plea to a traditional constituency to give into their pocketbook and ignore the environmentalists. Cynical? I should say so. Will it work? I’d say the odds are pretty good!
