Last night on the CTV National News, Lloyd Robertson asked me what each of the three national parties and their leaders had to do in the coming weeks.
Over the next couple of days, I’ll recap that to-do list, with a little more detail. First up, let’s look at the Conservatives.
Stephen Harper and the Conservatives
1. Keep moving to the centre.
Last two elections, the Liberals tried to define Harper as a scary, right wing zealot who, if elected, would foist any extreme-right agenda on Canadians. The gambit, aided by some of Harper’s own baggage and outburst from a few Conservative candidates, worked to a certain extent. In 2004, it helped the Liberals win and in 2006 it limited the Tories to a minority government.
This time, Stephen Harper is running as the avatar of good old Canadian moderation. He’s measured, reassuring, steady. No surprises and no risks. In fact, the guy who was cast as the Big Risk in the last two elections is trying to re-cast the Liberals in that mold.
Stephen Harper seems to have learned that elections are won from the broad middle of the road in Canada. His trick is to keep hogging the middle of the road. Don’t leave room for other cars (including the Dion Prius) to pass you. And, above all, no swerving to the right!
2. Lock in those Quebec Gains
Out of the blocks, the Conservatives have made significant gains in support the 15 closest Quebec ridings from the last federal election. And their vote is highly efficient – they’re doing well in nine of those ridings that are outside of Montreal, where they are the Bloc’s closest opponents.
The Prime Minister’s announcement this week that his government would pull Canada’s military contingent out of Afghanistan in 2011 is all about him solidifying those gains, and removing the obstacles to breaking through more widely in rural and Eastern Quebec. The Afghanistan mission is deeply unpopular among Quebeckers; our pre-election poll for the Globe and Mail and CTV News showed 76 percent of Quebeckers were opposed to the mission. The PM’s decision is a nod to them.
The challenge moving ahead for him is that Quebeckers, on everything from the environment, to gun control, to child care, are the most small “l” liberal voters in the country. He will have to assuage other concerns they have. And that’s another reason he’ll have to follow through on point #1 – staying in the centre.
