Three Very Separate Campaigns

Since the beginning of the election campaign, The Strategic Counsel has been polling intensively in the three Battleground Regions that will decide the outcome of the election: 20 ridings in Ontario, 15 ridings in Quebec and 10 ridings in British Columbia – all of which were the closest ridings in their province in the last (2006) federal election (or subsequent by-elections).

One of the most notable trends we’ve discovered… is that there isn’t any national trend at all!  Rather, these Battlegrounds show all the markings of three distinct, very separate campaigns that are taking place simultaneously – as opposed to one single national campaign.

The Conservatives took the lead early in the 10 closest BC ridings – and they’ve held onto it, and consolidated it ever since.  The numbers show that voters in the BC Battlegrounds are the most positively inclined towards the Harper government, and the most positive about the current state of the nation.  Good news for the Conservatives is bad news for the Liberals who, with six of those ten close BC seats, have the most at stake in the tight West Coast races.

In Quebec, the two parties led by francophone Quebecers, the Bloc and the Liberals, have been losing ground in the 15 Battleground ridings to the two parties led by anglos from outside the province – the Conservatives and the NDP.  The Conservatives numbers have increased most dramatically since 2006 in the ridings outside the island of Montreal.  And the gains in the NDP vote – at the expense of both the Bloc and the Liberals – may actually help the Tories pick up a number of those seats.  Interestingly, on issue after issue – from Canada-US relations, to the environment, to the arts, to the economy – a majority of voters in the Quebec Battlegrounds disagree with the Harper government.  But they still give the PM high leadership marks.

In Ontario Battlegrounds, the Liberals and Conservatives are in a see-saw fight, with the Green Party bleeding votes from the Grits.  Of the twenty closest Ontario ridings, the Conservatives have 10 at stake, the Liberals 8 and the NDP 2.  So far, the two main parties are doing well holding onto votes in the respective ridings they won.  But all of the 20 Ontario ridings were won by margins of less than 4.5% last election.  So even the most minor vote shifts can move the ridings from one party’s column to another.

To-Do List – Jack Layton and the NDP

Last Thursday on the CTV National News, Lloyd Robertson asked me what each of the three national parties and their leaders had to do in the coming weeks.

 

Over the last couple of days, I blogged in a little greater detail on Stephen Harper’s and Stephane Dion’s  respective to-do lists.  Today, the final installment: what Jack Layton and his NDP must do between now and election day.

 

1.      Be the Anti-Harper

 

By and large, the NDP won’t steal many votes from the Conservatives.  That’s a long way for those voters to travel along the spectrum.  Mr. Layton’s best chances for growth lie with those currently leaning toward the Liberals, the Green Party, and, in Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois.  But the way to peel away those votes isn’t to get into a knock-down-drag-out with those parties, it’s actually to keep pounding away at the Harper Conservatives.  In every sense, from personal style, to political values, to world view, Jack Layton is the diametric opposite of Stephen Harper. That’s the magnet he needs to use to draw votes from those other parties.  “If you really, really can’t stand Harper and co.”, his pitch should do, “I’m your guy.”  

 

If the re-election – even with a majority – of the Harper government starts to look inevitable, it might even help Layton.  Because the focus for a lot of voters would morph from stopping the Conservatives – the Liberal strong suit – to electing opposition members who will keep them on their toes – an NDP strong suit.

 

2.      Zero in on “Lunch Bucket” Issues

 

The fact is that the Liberals and the Greens between each other have stolen away the environment from the NDP.  There is just no way that they are going to be considered as green as they are. Ironically, that was probably a source of panic for the NDP six months ago.  Today, it’s more of a blessing because indications are that increased economic anxiety has caused the public to cool somewhat on the green agenda.  While they still want action on the environmental front, they’re not too keen about opening up their own wallet.  And the skepticism that is greeting the Liberal Green Shift is the best indication of that. 

 

This is particularly important to the traditional blue collar NDP, who already feels over-burdened and stressed.  The Conservatives have helped discredit the Green Shift to these voters by defining it, fairly or not, as a tax-grab.  The NDP can up the ante – and stress their difference from the Liberals – on an issue like fuel prices.  It’s a twofer for the NDP, as it allows them to beat up on oil companies (popular with blue collar workers) and talk about easing the burden at the gas pump.  And the fact that it is pretty counterproductive policy regarding the environment hurts not a whit, since the Liberals have carved out the higher ground on that issue.  It’s a red-meat economic plea to a traditional constituency to give into their pocketbook and ignore the environmentalists.  Cynical?  I should say so.  Will it work?  I’d say the odds are pretty good!

 

To-do List – Stephane Dion and the Liberals

Thursday night on the CTV National News, Lloyd Robertson asked me what each of the three national parties and their leaders had to do in the coming weeks.

Yesterday, I blogged in a little greater detail on Stephen Harper’s to-do-list.  Today, let’s look at what Stephane Dion and the Liberals have to accomplish over the next four weeks:

1.         Cherchez la femme – Win Back Women Voters

Liberals win elections when they have the largest share of women voters.  It’s really that simple.  There has often been a natural affinity between women and Liberal campaigns, in part due to a traditional Liberal focus on social issues, which are often important to women voters.  Another reason is that male voters are often more attracted to the “meat and potatoes” campaign agendas of Conservatives.  However, so far, at least in the 45 closest battleground ridings in Ontario, Quebec and BC, which we’re tracking for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, the Conservatives are enjoying a significant lead among male voters – and are tied with Liberals among women.

Stephane Dion has some key campaign planks that should appeal to women voters.  Surveys show that women are more favorable to his party’s Green Shift.  Due to Mr. Dion’s early commitment, fully a third of his party’s candidates are women – more than the Conservatives.  He also fought early and firmly to include Green Party Leader Elizabeth May in the leaders’ debate early last month.  

But that last item is a good example of how the Liberals aren’t seizing the initiative quickly or dramatically enough.  Dion should have been all over the Harper-Layton freeze-out of May in a nanosecond.   He should have gone after the other two leaders hammer and thong for a “boys only”, exclusionary approach that was insulting and all too familiar to Canadian women.  Instead, he pointed the finger at the consortium of television network executives who negotiated the conditions.  Last time I checked, those fellows aren’t on the ballot – Mr. Harper and Mr. Layton are.  By the time the leaders of the NDP and the Conservatives saw the writing on the wall, and came around on the issue, it was too late. The Libs could have been leading the parade on behalf of  Canadian women.  They have to be sharper and more prepared for future opportunities to win back women’s votes. Because they won’t come along very often.

2.         Claw Back Votes from the NDP

The Liberals are also bleeding another vital element of their winning base – protest voters who are currently parking with the NDP.   Simply put, the size of the NDP vote can mean the difference between Liberal victory and Liberal defeat.  Much has been made of the fact that Jean Chretien won three successive Liberal majorities because of a divided right.  There is much truth to that.  But perhaps even more important – and largely ignored – is his success in suppressing the NDP vote, and how that contributed to Liberal victory.  In the 1993, 1997 and 2000 elections, the NDP vote was 7.5%, 11% and 8.5% respectively.  In the 2006 election – which the Liberals lost – the NDP vote was 17%.  In riding after riding, the NDP increases resulted in Liberals losing and Conservatives winning.

To win this time, the Liberals need to push that NDP vote down.  And the best way to do it is by polarizing the choice between the Liberal Party and the Conservatives.  They need to hammer home that a vote for the NDP will help elect a Conservative government – a message that would be anathema to many if not most NDP voters. 

 

 

 

 

To-do List – Stephen Harper and the Conservatives

Last night on the CTV National News, Lloyd Robertson asked me what each of the three national parties and their leaders had to do in the coming weeks.

 

Over the next couple of days, I’ll recap that to-do list, with a little more detail.  First up, let’s look at the Conservatives.

 

Stephen Harper and the Conservatives

 

1.  Keep moving to the centre.

 

Last two elections, the Liberals tried to define Harper as a scary, right wing zealot who, if elected, would foist any extreme-right agenda on Canadians.  The gambit, aided by some of Harper’s own baggage and outburst from a few Conservative candidates, worked to a certain extent.  In 2004, it helped the Liberals win and in 2006 it limited the Tories to a minority government.

 

This time, Stephen Harper is running as the avatar of good old Canadian moderation.  He’s measured, reassuring, steady.  No surprises and no risks.  In fact, the guy who was cast as the Big Risk in the last two elections is trying to re-cast the Liberals in that mold.

 

Stephen Harper seems to have learned that elections are won from the broad middle of the road in Canada.  His trick is to keep hogging the middle of the road.  Don’t leave room for other cars (including the Dion Prius) to pass you.  And, above all, no swerving to the right!

 

2.  Lock in those Quebec Gains

 

Out of the blocks, the Conservatives have made significant gains in support the 15 closest Quebec ridings from the last federal election.  And their vote is highly efficient – they’re doing well in nine of those ridings that are outside of Montreal, where they are the Bloc’s closest opponents.

 

The Prime Minister’s announcement this week that his government would pull Canada’s military contingent out of Afghanistan in 2011 is all about him solidifying those gains, and removing the obstacles to breaking through more widely in rural and Eastern Quebec.  The Afghanistan mission is deeply unpopular among Quebeckers; our pre-election poll for the Globe and Mail and CTV News showed 76 percent of Quebeckers were opposed to the mission.  The PM’s decision is a nod to them.

 

The challenge moving ahead for him is that Quebeckers, on everything from the environment, to gun control, to child care, are the most small “l” liberal voters in the country.  He will have to assuage other concerns they have.  And that’s another reason he’ll have to follow through on point #1 – staying in the centre.

opening gambit – hits and misses

Stephen Harper wants to neatly reverse the dynamic from the last election; this time, he is stability and the Liberals are the scary risk – in his version, anyway.

By talking about the risks of the “experiment” of the Dion Green Shift, he also de-emphasizes the risk of electing him with a majority government.

How successful was that opening gambit? Quite. Served up with lots of corn about what a committed family man he is, he channelled more Ward Cleaver than Dirty Harry.

Perhaps Stéphane Dion was trying to come across as prime ministerial (one of his perceived leadership deficits) by holding his opening speech in front of the impressive oak doors in the foyer of the House of Commons. Problem is, it came across as just another parliamentary media scrum.

He wants to be the leader of the stop-Harper brigade, but he abdicated that role to Jack Layton yesterday, who gave a hearty partisan appeal in front of a cheering partisan crowd. Mr. Dion’s event later in the day wasn’t bad in terms of energy level. But his techno-babble about trading his plane’s carbon emissions or providing Canadians with calculators to measure their own carbon footprints just underlined the wonk-unbound fears that Mr. Harper raised.

If Mr. Dion is going to check Mr. Harper’s current advantage, he needs to become the default champion of those who oppose Mr. Harper’s brand of Conservatism – not let Mr. Layton lunge for that mantle. Yesterday was not any auspicious start.

published in the Globe and Mail

September 9, 2008